Or are we?
The great guys of Wissensmanufaktur (German economic dissidents; lit.: Knowledge Workshop) have layed out what really happens while the Germans get older and fewer. (Assuming no large scale immigration/invasion)
The gist of it is:
- Over the next 20 years, German working age population shrinks by at most 21%
- Over the past 20 years, productivity per working hour grew by 35%.
- Meaning that, under the realistic assumption of continued productivity growth at this speed, at least 7% more goods and services per person will be available (this their worst case scenario; the best case 21.5%)
I have oberved a similar thing for Japan vs. USA from 1990 to now: While Japan had their Lost Decades, the USA had the roaring 1990ies.
Japan had NO population growth all those years. And shrinking population now. While USA had about 1.5% internal population growth topped up by 2% growth through legal and illegal immigration. So how does the picture change when you look not at total GDP but at GDP per capita?
It turns out that USA and Japan developed approximately in parallel under that criterion.
I’m obsessed with GDP/capita because I’m not a nation state, I’m an individual and that’s the measurement of MY wealth. Turns out other people have observed it as well:
P.S.: But the Germans are going extinct! I hear you say.